21 Screened. 7 Cleared. None Hit 4% — Hillcrest Arcadia Leads at 3.76%.

21 Screened. 7 Cleared. None Hit 4% — Hillcrest Arcadia Leads at 3.76%.

13 July 2026

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I almost binned Hillcrest Arcadia on sight. A 1980-built, 99-year leasehold with no MRT inside the walk band is exactly the kind of tired D11 stock I sort to the bottom. Then I saw the entry: 29% under the district median PSF, a 5.05% gross, and the only net yield in today's book clearing 3.5%. That discount is the whole thesis.

Today's screen ran 21 listings; 7 cleared the buy box, 12 broke it, 2 were parked on the watchlist — and on a strict yield basis nothing is a screaming buy, because not one listing reached the 4.0% net-yield line.

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The Screen

Buy box: $750K–$1.2M · D09/D10/D11/D14/D15 · freehold or 999yr preferred · MRT ≤800m preferred · target net yield ≥3.2%.

Verdict basis: BUY ≥4.0% · HOLD 3.5–3.9% · FAIL <3.5%. Only Hillcrest clears HOLD; the other six sit in a tight 3.20–3.41% band — thin.

Failed / skipped: 12 of 21 broke the buy box on the price ceiling, a sub-$750K entry, or a breach of the 800m MRT band; 2 more were left on the watchlist as repeat/duplicate listings.

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Deep-Dive: Hillcrest Arcadia

3.76% net yield | 99-year leasehold | D11 (Arcadia Road) | no MRT inside the 800m band

Hillcrest Arcadia is an early-1980s 99-year leasehold off Arcadia Road, in the education-and-greenery pocket of D11 near the Botanic Gardens and Adam Road. It surfaced for one reason: the ask works out to roughly $1,357 psf against a district median of $1,912 psf across 214 transactions — a 29% discount. A 700 sqft two-bedder at sub-$1,400 psf simply does not exist elsewhere in D11 right now.

The Numbers

The $4,000 rent is drawn from URA Q2/2026 rental caveats, but on a thin sample (n=32) — the least robust rent read in today's book, where the D14/D15 listings lean on n=100+. Stress-test it: drop the rent to $3,700 and net yield falls to roughly 3.4%, straight back into the failing pack. The entire "HOLD" rests on that $4,000 holding up, so verify against live two-bed asking rents in the Adam/Dunearn belt before you underwrite it.

Why This Works

• The discount is the yield. At –29% vs the D11 median, you are buying the age and lease decay other buyers are pricing out. That is precisely why the gross prints a 5-handle when nothing else does.
• Rentable fundamentals. Adam Road hawker, Botanic Gardens, and the SCGS/education belt drive a steady family and expat tenant pool — the demand that supports a $4,000 two-bed rent even without an MRT at the door.
• Space per dollar. 700 sqft is 130–180 sqft more than most of today's shortlist for a comparable ticket, which is what a family tenant actually pays for.

The Honest Risks

1. Lease decay. A 99-year lease from ~1980 leaves roughly 53 years. It is already below the 60-year threshold where CPF usage gets pro-rated and the resale buyer pool narrows — exit liquidity gets harder every year, not easier. Underwrite this as a cash-flow hold, not a capital-appreciation play.
2. No MRT in the walk band. The screen returns no station inside 800m; this is a bus/drive location. That caps the rental ceiling and the tenant pool versus the MRT-walk comps below it, and the discount partly reflects that permanently.
3. 1980 fittings. A 46-year-old block carries real sinking-fund and AA-levy risk; the $280/mth maintenance line may understate future top-ups.
4. D11 supply. Dunearn House (380 units, D11, TOP TBC) sits in the pipeline — modest, but new stock competes directly for the same expat rental dollar.

Verdict

The only listing clearing the 3.5% line today, and it does so on a lease-decay-for-yield trade, not on strength. Buy only if you accept the 53-year lease and the no-MRT discount as permanent features and can verify the $4,000 rent against live listings. If either wobbles, this is a pass — and on a thin-yield day, passing is a legitimate call.

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The Rest of the Shortlist

NoMa (D14) — 3.41%, $1,050,000, 657 sqft, 640m to CC8 Dakota. Freehold, 2024-built, priced 3% under median PSF (729 comps) — the cleanest tenure-and-condition combo on the list. But at 3.41% net the yield still fails, and the Dakota/Old Airport tenant pool skews transient.

Vibes @ East Coast (D15) — 3.40%, $910,000, 581 sqft, 550m to TE27 Marine Terrace. Freehold at –9% vs median (527 comps), and TEL connectivity is a genuine tailwind. Watch the D15 pipeline though: Emerald of Katong (846), Grand Dunman (1,008), and The Continuum (816) all land nearby — a wall of new supply competing for the same rent.

Guillemard Edge (D14) — 3.28%, $1,088,888, 603 sqft, 770m to CC8 Dakota. The problem is written in the comps: +17.3% above district median PSF. You are paying up for a freehold that the rent can't justify — the weakest price-to-comps read in the shortlist.

#1 Loft (D14) — 3.23%, $815,000, 592 sqft, 440m to EW9 Aljunied. The best MRT walk (440m) and cheapest ticket, freehold at –9.9% vs median. But it sits in the Aljunied/Lorong Geylang belt — factor in the tenant-profile and financing friction that comes with that address, and note the modest $3,000 assumed rent capping the upside.

Mill Point (D10) — 3.22%, $1,000,000, 527 sqft, 560m to TE15 Great World. 999-year tenure (effectively freehold) at –10% vs a rich $2,108 median PSF, walkable to Great World. A prime-fringe address at a discount — but a 527 sqft shoebox on $3,600 rent is what keeps the net yield stuck at 3.22%.

Vida (D09) — 3.20%, $1,130,000, 517 sqft, 550m to NS21 Newton. Freehold Newton shoebox priced right on median (+2.1%). It is the most prime address on the board and the lowest yield — the classic core-D09 compression, worsened by a heavy River Valley/Orchard pipeline (River Green, River Modern, One Sophia) landing 2028–29.

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Net yield = (monthly rent × 12 × 0.92 – maintenance – property tax) ÷ purchase price. Property tax computed on annual value at non-owner-occupied progressive rates. Rent assumptions drawn from URA Q2/2026 rental caveats (sample sizes cited per listing). Not financial advice.